game report - sealion inevitable - bais to axis.

Link up A&A Pacific 1940 and Europe 1940, and you've got Axis & Allies Global 1940.
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LoafOfBread
Posts: 18
Joined: Fri Dec 03, 2010 8:26 pm

game report - sealion inevitable - bais to axis.

Post by LoafOfBread » Sun Jan 02, 2011 2:48 am

Played latest setup as of 12/30/2010. (extra fighter, all that jazz...)

London fell to Sealion in Turn 3. UK fleet decimated by Germany in Turn 1. Max land troops build on London in Turn 1 and Turn 2 by UK. How to prevent it? Not sure it can be done.

Feel that Sealion is likely by Turn 3, and all but inevitable by Turn 4, if Germany decides this is what they want.

Why wouldn't Germany want to take out the UK? Russian cannot attack Germany until turn 4 anyway. Thanks to new rule keeping USA troops off the boats in the water, it takes 2 turns for USA to even attempt to liberate London. With UK looted $ and their own income, the Germans had $92, yes $92 for which to build in Turn 4. Wow, it's pretty hard to Russia to match that kind of spending.

In our game, the Japanese player was not up to the $50 range in income like we usually see by Turn 4, a few mis-steps by a novice player meant income was in the high $30s. As a result, the game was inconclusive by Turn 5 and we had to quit. Had a veteran Japanese player been in charge, and Japan income been where we normally have seen it in the last 4 games, my guess is it would have been an Axis win.

For all those who think this scenario is biased to the Allies, are you kidding me?

Suggest:

1. National Objective for Lend Lease, "lifeline to the USA", gain extra income for UK in early game.

2. Redistribute UK fleet, don't make UK fleet such a sitting ducks to be picked apart. UK "scramble" near-useless with so many German naval and air units.

QuakerGeneral
Posts: 22
Joined: Fri Oct 08, 2010 9:20 am

Re: game report - sealion inevitable - bais to axis.

Post by QuakerGeneral » Sun Jan 02, 2011 8:44 am

I also initially thought that Sealion was biased toward Axis and nearly inevitable. However, I then ran a bunch of scenarios through an online Axis and Allies Calculator that runs one thousand tests of the battles and gives you percentage results such as 72% of the time the defender wins, etc. In any event, doing this reveals that the Allies can prevent Sealion the vast majority of the time but only if (a) UK builds only infantry or almost only infantry and (b) UK moves its Med. fleet up to the English Channel. If UK does both of these things, SeaLion will fail almost all of the time. Even if UK responds appropriately, however, I still think that this move is still the best one for Germany because they will have forced UK to turtle, freeing up Italy to secure the Med. and be in a position to help down the road. Of course, Germany does not have to threaten SeaLion, but I think that UK must respond as listed above if they threaten a full SeaLion invasion.

Captain Crunch
Posts: 136
Joined: Wed Aug 05, 2009 3:04 pm
Location: Ontario, Canada

Re: game report - sealion inevitable - bais to axis.

Post by Captain Crunch » Sun Jan 02, 2011 1:41 pm

QuakerGeneral wrote:I also initially thought that Sealion was biased toward Axis and nearly inevitable. However, I then ran a bunch of scenarios through an online Axis and Allies Calculator that runs one thousand tests of the battles and gives you percentage results such as 72% of the time the defender wins, etc. In any event, doing this reveals that the Allies can prevent Sealion the vast majority of the time but only if (a) UK builds only infantry or almost only infantry and (b) UK moves its Med. fleet up to the English Channel. If UK does both of these things, SeaLion will fail almost all of the time. Even if UK responds appropriately, however, I still think that this move is still the best one for Germany because they will have forced UK to turtle, freeing up Italy to secure the Med. and be in a position to help down the road. Of course, Germany does not have to threaten SeaLion, but I think that UK must respond as listed above if they threaten a full SeaLion invasion.
Can Italy not block the UK from moving their fleet out? Or attack on Italy 1 before they can get out of the Med?
Regards,
Captain Crunch

Take time from your busy day to play Axis & Allies and to eat a bowl of cereal.

marcelvdpol
Posts: 11
Joined: Sun Jan 02, 2011 7:31 am

Re: game report - sealion inevitable - bais to axis.

Post by marcelvdpol » Sun Jan 02, 2011 3:35 pm

The UK Fleet near Egypt will be difficult to save, but the UK Fleet off the coast of Gibraltar will ofcourse have moved out of range by the time Italy can play. Even so, I think the SeaLion is too powerfull compared to the rather ragged UK fleet elements. I think a trade-off is in order; some additional fleet elements for the UK spread across the atlantic while at the same time more fleet elements for Italy.

LoafOfBread
Posts: 18
Joined: Fri Dec 03, 2010 8:26 pm

Re: game report - sealion inevitable - bais to axis.

Post by LoafOfBread » Sun Jan 02, 2011 3:48 pm

QuakerGeneral, thanks for the statistic, but I'd like to see how you came up with that number. What are the tactical assumptions?

For instance, you mention getting the fleet 'out of the med' and up to the channel. UK has just 2 turns to do this, and the first turn must be from Egypt to Gibraltar, since the larger UK fleet doesn't start on the west side of the Med anymore.


I assume the following:

1. Germany does a great job of destroying all but one warship (or possibly ALL warships) on turn 1 off the coast of UK. In 4 out of 4 games of my games, this has happened without exception.
2. UK assumes that Sealion is coming on turn 3, so as a result moves their fleet from Egypt west to Gibraltar on turn 1, reinforcing Gibraltar with planes that can scramble and protect the UK fleet from a potential Italian attack. Of course, this weakens the UK effort in the Med greatly, allowing Italy to expand more rapidly.
3. Germany attacks Paris and wins on Turn 1. Not a problem.
4. Germany builds warships and transports as needed to invade on Turn 1, creating an armada at SZ112 that cannot be counter attacked and destroyed by UK air power on turn 1. Suggestion: a carrier? That means 5 planes to defend SZ 112 plus whatever Germany surface ships survive the battle in SZ 112. That's more than enough to defend the German fleet in Turn 1 from the Brits.

Now what happens on Germany turn 2? UK's larger is still in the med, wanting to get to SZ110. It is a small matter for Germany to place a blocking warship in SZ 104, SZ110 or both, preventing the large UK fleet from returning home to interfere with the German invasion on turn 3. If the goal of the bringing in UK fleet is to force Germany to destroy it, Germany doesn't have to fight this fight. Germany can land in London in two ways SZ110 or SZ109, both only 3 spaces from SZ112. Italy could, also, attack the UK fleet near Gibraltar, even if outnumbered, sinking maybe a couple of the ships, making the UK fleet even less relevant.

Regardless, UK has put 100% effort into defending London, and Italy is now powerful in the Med. With this approach I've seen an Italy in the $40 range by Turn 4.

Are your numbers up do date? What tactical assumptions do your numbers make?

QuakerGeneral
Posts: 22
Joined: Fri Oct 08, 2010 9:20 am

Re: game report - sealion inevitable - bais to axis.

Post by QuakerGeneral » Sun Jan 02, 2011 6:31 pm

I replied in the other related thread with my ideas and thinking. Interesting how we were both mulling over Sea Lion in 1940 at the same time and posted almost at the same time.

In any event, here are my moves for this thread as well.

Operation Sea Lion Global Move-by-Move

Uses 12/27/2010 Larry Harris Alpha Suggested Set Up

German Turn One

Purchases: Two transports, Airbase for Denmark

Combat Moves: France (with 7 infantry, 2 Mechs, 3 Artillery, 3 Tanks), Southern France (with 2 Tanks, 2 Mechs), Finland (with one infantry), Bulgaria (with one infantry), Yugoslavia (with 8 infantry, artillery, 3 Tanks), SZ 112 (with BB, CRUS, DEST, Tactical Bomber, Fighter), SZ 110 (with 2 Submarines, 2 Tactical Bombers, 2 Fighters, and the Strategic Bomber) and SZ 111 (with 1 Sub, Tactical Bomber, 2 Fighters). During this aggressive German turn, it is likely the Germans will lose a couple of air units along the way.

Noncombat Moves and Placement: 6 Infantry, 4 Artillery in Germany move to West Germany; Poland and Slovakia Infantry move to Germany, land three fighters in Denmark, rest of airpower in Western Germany, Place Transports in SZ 112, Place Airbase in Denmark.

UK Turn One: Purchase 9 Infantry. Move CRUS, DEST, AC to Gibraltar East, land Malta Fighter on AC along with Tactical. Move Destroyer from SZ 108 to SZ 110 to prevent bombardments on German Turn Two. Move CRUS in 91 to Gibraltar East SZ. Move Gibraltar Fighter to UK, Move Scotland Fighter and Infantry to UK, Move Tank, Infantry from Canada to UK, Move Canadian Destroyer to Gibraltar West. Move two fighters from UK to Gibraltar for defense of Fleet. [This should be enough to prevent a German Two Operation Sea Lion. AA Calculator says Germans win no more that 14% of the time. If UK sends just one fighter to Gibraltar, percentage drops to just 4.8%.]

Italy Turn One: Attacking UK fleet seems a major gamble though it could be done to weaken UK’s defenses for Sea Lion on Turn Three. Assume that the Italian fleet eliminates everything but the three fighters, which would be a good result, this is still not enough to allow Germany to win on Turn Three Invasion. If Italy does focus on UK Fleet, some of the French fleet should be able to move out of Med and will be able to defend Sea Lion on Turn Three. All in all, it is hard from the Italians to eliminateall of the Allied navy, though they can gamble, sacrificing their navy for a winner-take-all Sea Lion invasion on Turn Three.

France Turn One: Move what survives of the Med. Fleet to link up with surviving UK Fleet or best location for Turn Three defense of England.

Germany Turn Two: Purchase Ten Transports. Clear SZ 110 if anything moved in. Move all units to Western Germany.

UK Turn Two: Purchase Ten Infantry. Move what remains of UK Fleet to SZ 110. Move airpower to UK for defense.

Italy Turn Three: Help clear 110 if possible. Take Gibraltar to prevent easy return of Allied navy.

German Turn Three: Attack UK? There should be at least a few allied ships in SZ 110 and UK can scramble up to three air units, meaning Germany must allocate some of its airpower to the Sea Zone. If they allocate a very minimum amount, say one Tactical Bomber and one Fighter (to go along with BB, CRUS, DEST) and win in the sea zone (because England declines to scramble for example), the chances of taking England are still just 50%. If they must allocate more than this, their chances drop dramatically to 40% or 25%. All of this seems very risky to me, and I would not suicide the Italian navy against the UK Fleet for a best-case scenario of 50% to take UK.

Captain Crunch
Posts: 136
Joined: Wed Aug 05, 2009 3:04 pm
Location: Ontario, Canada

Re: game report - sealion inevitable - bais to axis.

Post by Captain Crunch » Mon Jan 03, 2011 4:16 am

We just finished a game where Germany was successful at sealion. Uk bought all infantry from round 1. Instead of bringing the med fleet up to help stop the attack they eliminated the Italian fleet, less one destroyer that was put up as block by Italy. I was comfortable giving up London at this point knowing that the US would be there to liberate her shortly. Italy was left with no way of helping in Africa and the Allies had complete control there. Germany put so much resource into Sealion that Russia was knocking on their door in round four with a heavy push that was well prepared since we knew there was no threat from Germany. I just don't see how Sealion is a good idea. It takes too long to prep for and too many IPC's to pull off. There is no IPC's left to defend the line against Russia. I don't think anyone in our playgroup will attempt that again.
Regards,
Captain Crunch

Take time from your busy day to play Axis & Allies and to eat a bowl of cereal.

LoafOfBread
Posts: 18
Joined: Fri Dec 03, 2010 8:26 pm

Re: game report - sealion inevitable - bais to axis.

Post by LoafOfBread » Mon Jan 03, 2011 2:47 pm

That's funny, the same thing was attempted by the UK, with the exact opposite result on our game. UK attacked the Italians, rolling well and sinking their western fleet, but with Germany's help with few planes, Italian naval power was not totally destroyed. Sealion succeeded in Turn3. By turn 4, Italy had taken Egypt.

In turn 4, Germany had enough on the eastern border to prevent a Russian breakthorugh. Germany spent $92 that round buying units. By turn 5 Russia was falling back and Italy was moving towards Stalingrad.

My guess is somehow in your game Germany and Italy didn't take all the actions they could have. Also, where was Japan? If Japan does its job right byt turn 4 Japan $ should be in the $50 range, USA will have to spend the majority of their money in the Pacific to prevent Honolulu and Sydney from falling.


I'm going to make future posts in the other thread, by the way.....

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