Operation Sea Lion in Global 1940 Alpha 1+

Link up A&A Pacific 1940 and Europe 1940, and you've got Axis & Allies Global 1940.
QuakerGeneral
Posts: 22
Joined: Fri Oct 08, 2010 9:20 am

Re: Operation Sea Lion in Global 1940 Alpha 1+

Post by QuakerGeneral » Sun Jan 02, 2011 6:28 pm

LoafOfBread wrote:Presumably the Med UK fleet has two purposes:

1. To force the Germans to destroy it using their air power, rather than using German air power to attack London.
2. To prevent bombardment during the invasion of London by the German Battleship and Cruiser

THAT IS MY THINKING AS WELL

IMHO, there is no "absolute right way" to do Sealion, and all of your ideas are good, and could be great, depending on the circumstances. Here are a few of interesting things that can happen, and make things even WORSE for the UK and it's a "depends on" situation.

1. Germany can land in Scotland on Turn 2, assuming there is German fleet to defend the transports. This works well if the UK has sent airplanes south to defend the Med fleet. Either way, UK is in tough spot, to counter attack Scotland is to weaken London prior to the Turn 3 invasion. To not counter attack is to allow more Germany troops to attack London, both from Scotland and amphibiously.

MAYBE, THIS WOULD MEAN GOING WITH THE AIRCRAFT CARRIER ON TURN ONE BUT THIS IS POTENTIALLY A STRONG ADDITION TO MY SEA LION SCENARIO. IT WOULD DEPEND UPON THE ABILITY OF GERMANY TO FILL UP 16 TRANSPORTS INSTEAD OF 13 IN MY SCENARIO.

2. From SZ112, Germany can amphibiously attack London from SZ 109 and SZ110. Thus, a naval confrontation is sometimes avoidable completely by the Germans.

THIS IS GOOD POINT, AND UK WOULD NEED TO BLOCK THIS WITH A DESTROYER ON UK TURN TWO.

3. Germany can move one or more "blocking" warships to SZ 104 or SZ110 to prevent the UK fleet from reaching the channel in time.

I THINK UK COULD PREVENT THIS FROM HAPPENING WITH A WARSHIP, FORCING GERMANY TO STOP IN 110, WHERE THE GERMANS COULD THEN BE ELIMINATED ON UK TURN TWO BY FLEET MOVING IN, AIRPOWER, ETC.

4. If the UK fails to reinforce its Med fleet with more planes to scramble from Gibraltar on the way home to the Channel, the Italians can attack and sink a significant portion (if not all) of the UK fleet on its way home.

YES, THIS IS TRUE AS MY SCENARIO COVERS.

Sealion success chances are high if done right. Just threatening Sealion strengthens Italy greatly. With all that French money in German hands, UK player must assume Sealion is coming or risk losing the capital.

WE LARGELY AGREE. MY ANALYSIS SUGGESTS HOWEVER THAT A PERFECT UK RESPONSE MAKES SEA LION ONLY 50% SUCCESSFUL AGAINST A PERFECT AXIS SEALION. POTENTIALLY THOUGH THE SCOTLAND MOVE ADDS TO GERMAN CHANCES, SO I NEED TO LOOK AT THAT CAREFULLY.

QuakerGeneral
Posts: 22
Joined: Fri Oct 08, 2010 9:20 am

Re: Operation Sea Lion in Global 1940 Alpha 1+

Post by QuakerGeneral » Sun Jan 02, 2011 6:51 pm

The Scotland invasion on Turn Two seems like it strengthens Axis hand, as they can forego Yugoslavia in my scenario and have enough units to ship over on Turn Three. Still want to think this over but this seems very promising for Axis.

LoafOfBread
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Re: Operation Sea Lion in Global 1940 Alpha 1+

Post by LoafOfBread » Sun Jan 02, 2011 9:21 pm

QuakerGeneral thank you for your thoughts. It is good to have someone to bounce this off of.

The "blocking" warship concept, after a few thoughts, doesn't have much merit. In UK's case, they probably have no warship near UK turn 1 to do any blocking anyway. If UK does, that destroyer/cruiser can be destroyed easily by Germany on turn 2 if it's parked anywhere on the UK coast, with the German planes flying 5 from W.Germany and landing in Belgium, Norway, or on the carrier in SZ112. I try to remember that on turn 2 the entire Luftwaffe has little to do but clear the seazones around UK and/or strategic bomb London. UK would be foolish to scramble against such odds.

German naval blocking has little advantage, as there is enough UK air power to destroy any lone German blocking warships in 104 and 110 and this will allow the UK fleet to enter SZ100 on UK2.

So if UK's goal is to force a naval battle as a prelude to the London invasion, the only way to do that would be to split the UK fleet on turn 2 between SZ109 and SZ110, both of which are 3 spaces or less from Germany's fleet in SZ112.

Furthermore if the UK wants the Med fleet to survive it will have to send down at least 1 fighter to the base in Malta from the UK, probably 2. I did the math on this battle. If Southern France falls on G1, the Italian fighter can participate in the naval battle, which means UK must reinforce the fleet to reliably survive.

Don't bother with a airbase in Denmark. A carrier is more flexible and powerful.

So I did some math and with UK totally maxxxxing out the UK protective strategy, sure, the odds (as I calculate) are about 60% Germany win. That's turn 3. If the Germans land in Scotland instead on turn 3 (with 26 land units) and then combine the Scottish and amphibious units for a London attack on Turn 4, it looks grim for UK.

I've always said that Sealion is likely on turn 3, and inevitable on turn 4, if Germany sets their mind to it. I'd love to be proven wrong! I don't like that Sealion is so easy, nor such an integral part of this new setup. Sealion should be a longshot, nothing more. It's much more than a longshot with this setup.

stew8888
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Re: Operation Sea Lion in Global 1940 Alpha 1+

Post by stew8888 » Sun Jan 02, 2011 10:01 pm

I have started to see this as well, but with an aircraft carrier instead of the Airbase. Blocking the British with German surface boats can be avoided by killing the German unit using aircraft (another valid point for a UK bomber) and moving through on the non combat move unless sz 110 has German boats in it as well. Uk can usually find a way to get those boats up to sz 110. The landing of Germans in Scotland and attacking on G4 is the most devastating strategy I can't see a way to repulse for the British yet.

How to prevent this ideas.
Maybe a bigger UK vessel in Canada along with the destroyer at the beginning, and more ground units and a couple of transports instead of one could throw a balance back to 50/50. Canada is only worth 7 total while Australia 8 highly unlikely. With only 2 inf and 1 tank 1 destroyer 1 transport give them a cruiser or 2 and another transport as well and a Mech infantry. Also allow units to load from Quebec onto the transports as well. (I'm not sure if they are able as it stands it never came up). This allows Canada to get more units to UK and a few extra boats as well.

Just thoughts I'll play test some of these ideas.
Sealion should be possible but not a gimme!

Thanks I really enjoy these games

QuakerGeneral
Posts: 22
Joined: Fri Oct 08, 2010 9:20 am

Re: Operation Sea Lion in Global 1940 Alpha 1+

Post by QuakerGeneral » Sun Jan 02, 2011 11:28 pm

LoafOfBread wrote:QuakerGeneral thank you for your thoughts. It is good to have someone to bounce this off of.

NO PROBLEM. I APPRECIATE THE BACK AND FORTH AS WELL AND MIGHT HAVE TAKEN YOUR ROLE IN THE DEBATE IF I HAD ENCOUNTERED SOMEONE SAYING SEA LION IS DOOMED. FROM THE LARGER PERSPECTIVE, WE BASICALLY AGREE.

So if UK's goal is to force a naval battle as a prelude to the London invasion, the only way to do that would be to split the UK fleet on turn 2 between SZ109 and SZ110, both of which are 3 spaces or less from Germany's fleet in SZ112.

MY THINKING WAS THE CANADIAN DESTROYER WOULD BLOCK THE GERMANS FROM EVEN BEING ABLE TO GET TO UK VIA THE WESTERN SIDE. THE GERMANS WOULD HAVE TO GO TO 110 IF THEY WANTED TO LAND IN UK IN TURN THREE.

Furthermore if the UK wants the Med fleet to survive it will have to send down at least 1 fighter to the base in Malta from the UK, probably 2. I did the math on this battle. If Southern France falls on G1, the Italian fighter can participate in the naval battle, which means UK must reinforce the fleet to reliably survive.

THIS IS CORRECT.

Don't bother with a airbase in Denmark. A carrier is more flexible and powerful.

YES, THIS IS RIGHT. AIRCRAFT CARRIER IS BETTER THAN AN AIRBASE.

So I did some math and with UK totally maxxxxing out the UK protective strategy, sure, the odds (as I calculate) are about 60% Germany win. That's turn 3.

IT IS HARD FOR ME TO GET MY HEAD AROUND THE NUMBER AS IT FLUCTUATES GREATLY DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH OF A SEA BATTLE IN 110 TAKES PLACE. THAT IN TURN DEPENDS UPON HOW SUCCESSFUL THE INITIAL GERMAN WIPEOUT OF ALL THE BRITISH NAVY WAS. IF THEY ARE TO DO THAT THEY WILL NEED TO COMMIT ALL AIRPOWER BECAUSE OF THE NEW SCRAMBLING RULE. DOING THIS MEANS THAT THEY HAVE NO AIR POWER TO SEND TO FRANCE. SENDING IN NO AIR SUPPORT TO FRANCE GIVES THE FRENCH A SLIM CHANCE (16% I THINK). FRENCH HOLDING PARIS SCREWS UP THE WHOLE DEAL OF COURSE. IF THEY SEND AIR INTO FRANCE, UK MIGHT BE TEMPTED TO SCRAMBLE AND TRY TO SAVE THEIR FLEET, DOWN SOME KEY GERMAN AIR UNITS, ETC. THEN THERE IS THE QUESTION OF THE ITALIAN NAVY WIPEOUT OF THE BRITISH MED FLEET, WHICH AGAIN IS AT LEAST WITHIN THE REALM OF THE DICE GODS. IN THE END, I AM NOT SURE THE GERMANS TAKE LONDON OVER HALF THE TIME ON TURN THREE.

If the Germans land in Scotland instead on turn 3 (with 26 land units) and then combine the Scottish and amphibious units for a London attack on Turn 4, it looks grim for UK.

THE SCOTLAND SCENARIO IS A GREAT ADDITION TO THE WHOLE ARGUMENT. THE ONLY CHANCE UK HAS IS TO CRUSH THE GERMAN FLEET THAT LANDED THE SCOTLAND FORCES. THIS MIGHT BE POSSIBLE AS THEY COULD HAVE FIVE FIGHTERS, A TACTICAL, AND A STRATEGIC AVAILABLE. THIS COULD TAKE DOWN AN AIRCRAFT CARRIER, BATTLESHIP, CRUISER, AND DESTROYER. I CALCULATE THIS AS 48% CHANCE FOR ALLIES TO WIPE OUT THE AXIS FLEET. IN SOME OF THE CASES WHERE THE ALLIES FAIL, FRANCE MIGHT BE ABLE TO FOLLOW UP WITH ITS LONE FIGHTER AND A LINGERING NAVAL UNIT OR TWO.

I've always said that Sealion is likely on turn 3, and inevitable on turn 4, if Germany sets their mind to it. I'd love to be proven wrong! I don't like that Sealion is so easy, nor such an integral part of this new setup. Sealion should be a longshot, nothing more. It's much more than a longshot with this setup.

NOT WILLING YET TO SAY SEALION IS INEVITABLE. I THINK IT IS "VERY" VIABLE AND MAYBE TOO VIABLE. I THINK THIS KIND OF THINKING IS VERY USEFUL.

ONE THING THAT OTHERS POINT OUT IS THAT A GERMAN TURN FOUR CAPTURE OF UK IS NOT AS GREAT FOR THE AXIS AS AN EARLIER CAPTURE (TURN TWO OR TURN THREE). BY TURN FOUR, BOTH US AND USSR ARE MORE INVOLVED, AND THEY ARE GOING TO BE CAUSING MAJOR PROBLEMS FOR GERMANY. IF GERMANY DECIDES TO TRY TO HOLD UK I THINK THEY ARE GOING TO BE IN REAL DANGER OF A US DESTRUCTION OF THE GERMAN FLEET AND SUBSEQUENT LANDING ON WEST GERMANY COMBINED WITH A USSR PUSH FROM THE EAST. IN OTHER WORDS, IS A TURN FOUR GERMAN CAPTURE OF UK REALLY THAT GREAT FOR THE AXIS, ESP. IF THEY HAVE HAD TO SACRIFICE MAJOR PORTIONS OF THE ITALIAN NAVY, STRIP THE EASTERN THEATER BARE, ETC. TO DO IT. MAYBE IT IS, BUT I THINK THIS KIND OF EXPLORATION IS IMPORTANT PART OF THE PROCESS, AND I AM NOT YET READY TO DECLARE THE NEED FOR SUBSTANTIAL CHANGE.

FOR WHAT IT IS WORTH, I DO LIKE THE IDEAS FOR ADDING A BIT MORE TO CANADA. ALSO A SMALL BEEFING UP OF THE BRITISH NAVY AROUND UK WOULD PROBABLY GO A LONG WAY TO PREVENTING SEA LION. ANOTHER SMALL TWEAK WOULD BE TO ADD THAT INVADING SCOTLAND WOULD ALSO TRIGGER US ENTRANCE INTO THE WAR, JUST AS ALPHA NOW ALLOWS FOR US TO DECLARE UPON FALL OF UK. OF COURSE, IF WE GO TOO FAR, SEA LION BECOMES AN IMPOSSIBILITY AND THE GAME REVERTS TO THE 1980S MOSCOW-OR-BUST VERSION THAT WAS BORING IN COMPARISON TO GLOBAL.

LoafOfBread
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Re: Operation Sea Lion in Global 1940 Alpha 1+

Post by LoafOfBread » Mon Jan 03, 2011 12:34 am

Hi and thanks. A quick post for clarity.
QuakerGeneral wrote: MY THINKING WAS THE CANADIAN DESTROYER WOULD BLOCK THE GERMANS FROM EVEN BEING ABLE TO GET TO UK VIA THE WESTERN SIDE. THE GERMANS WOULD HAVE TO GO TO 110 IF THEY WANTED TO LAND IN UK IN TURN THREE.
The Canadian destroyer, moved to NW Scotland on UK2, would prevent the Germans from getting to SZ109 in Turn 3. You are correct.
QuakerGeneral wrote: THE SCOTLAND SCENARIO IS A GREAT ADDITION TO THE WHOLE ARGUMENT. THE ONLY CHANCE UK HAS IS TO CRUSH THE GERMAN FLEET THAT LANDED THE SCOTLAND FORCES. THIS MIGHT BE POSSIBLE AS THEY COULD HAVE FIVE FIGHTERS, A TACTICAL, AND A STRATEGIC AVAILABLE. THIS COULD TAKE DOWN AN AIRCRAFT CARRIER, BATTLESHIP, CRUISER, AND DESTROYER. I CALCULATE THIS AS 48% CHANCE FOR ALLIES TO WIPE OUT THE AXIS FLEET. IN SOME OF THE CASES WHERE THE ALLIES FAIL, FRANCE MIGHT BE ABLE TO FOLLOW UP WITH ITS LONE FIGHTER AND A LINGERING NAVAL UNIT OR TWO.
Remember though, if the UK player is smart, at the start of UK2 at least 4 planes, maybe 5, will be in SZ92 and/or Malta protecting the UK fleet from the Italians. At 5 spaces of movement, this is not enough to attack a German fleet in SZ111 and land in London in turn UK2. This is a very risky move. Yes, there is a 48% chance of destroying the German fleet in SZ111. Even if this UK gambit succeeds, almost certainly most of the UK planes will be destroyed, making London an easier target. Germany will still have enough air power to destroy what remains of the UK fleet in SZ110 and will still be able to land several transports in London, only London won't have more than a couple fighters to protect it.

Captain Crunch
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Re: Operation Sea Lion in Global 1940 Alpha 1+

Post by Captain Crunch » Mon Jan 03, 2011 3:24 am

Just finished a game where sealion took London. London left their fleet in med to clear Italian fleet knowing US would be able to liberate London in 2-3 turns. Germany was in a whole lot of trouble with pressure from Russia and the Axis eventually conceded. I don't see how Sealion could possibly be a good thing.
Regards,
Captain Crunch

Take time from your busy day to play Axis & Allies and to eat a bowl of cereal.

QuakerGeneral
Posts: 22
Joined: Fri Oct 08, 2010 9:20 am

Re: Operation Sea Lion in Global 1940 Alpha 1+

Post by QuakerGeneral » Mon Jan 03, 2011 9:49 am

Captain Crunch wrote:Just finished a game where sealion took London. London left their fleet in med to clear Italian fleet knowing US would be able to liberate London in 2-3 turns. Germany was in a whole lot of trouble with pressure from Russia and the Axis eventually conceded. I don't see how Sealion could possibly be a good thing.
I agree and disagree. Yes, I think that Russia advancing on Germany is a big factor and that the USA can retake England eventually. No, that taking UK is always a bad idea. If UK can be taken early, the benefits of the income won by taking the capital and knocking UK out of production for a few turns are worth it. I believe that the optimal strategy is to essentially abandon England after taking it, swing all the surviving troops back around and into the Russian theater. Meanwhile, hopefully Italy is doing well in the Med because of the fall of the British and can start to help in Eastern Europe and push on Russia's southern border. German navy can either swing down into Med. to help Italians out or block and delay US retaking of England. It should take US a bit of time to retake because of the new rule about Minor complexes before they enter the war and their inability to load troops prior to war. This means that, barring an early Japanese attack, they can't liberate UK until Turn Six at the earliest I should think.

Bottom Line: I do think it depends on how well England is defended. If it is defended very well, the costs of successful invasion may indeed be too high. However, if the British player has not pursued an optimal defense, taking England on Turn Three should be relatively easy to accomplish and worth it.

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